The Mighty Finger of Google
An important upcoming auction is set to begin January 24, 2008 (lasting as long as 3 months or more) for the 700 MHz frequency range, as it will be made available via the FCC after the HDTV digital shift is forced into use in 2009. There is one bidder which everyone is anticipating to make a very high bid: Google. Speculation about this interest from Google are a little broad, but we can narrow one possibility down using other events that have taken place in the past. Events such as a desire by Google in 2005 to purchase a large quantity of “dark fiber.” Dark fiber is an term used to describe fiber optic back-bones, already laid down by telecommunications companies and the like, but unused so far (hence “dark”). Not much else has come to the surface about this desire for fiber optics, but it is likely they followed through and bought some — (besides, they have money coming out the wazoo).
In addition to this is the fact that Google is also deeply involved with the development of their own line of cellular phones, set to run a Linux based operating system called Android. Analysts watching these events unfold suggest Google will make the phones available for use to customers of four major cellular carriers in the US: T-Mobile, Sprint, Verizon and AT&T, operating on already existent frequencies. But I think Google has something up its sleeve…
A Wild Theory
It’s too far away to tell exactly when the first real Google cell phone will be released… which makes things difficult for me because what Google has in mind is a little dependent upon a couple loose events. But, we’ll just have to assume that the first of two events to take place will be the unveiling of their very own cell phone (plus separate Operating System, Android), followed by whatever they do with that 700 MHz radio frequency range, (assuming they actually win at the auction). It is a strong possibility. So let’s assume for now that they will.
Now, let’s go a few years into the future, and “everybody” has their Google phones with their GPS tracking and bar-code scanners and credit-card integration and all that other cool Japaneses madness. Everybody is probably on a contract with their respective service providers, but then one day that contract is going to expire. What will Google be up to around that time? Well…what if they have a new infrastructure comprised of fiber optic backbones and the 700 MHz radio frequency range. With it, they would have the ability to not only provide their own cell phone service, but also wireless Internet service. They’ve done it before on a smaller scale and a different radio frequency. And with the license rights from the FCC, there would be little to stop them in way of using their newly purchased bandwidth to provide a whole new plethora of wireless services to their customers. Best of all? Google may possibly provide services for free in the long run.
So what do we have so far?
- Google has likely purchased fiber optic backbone in and since 2005, and may purchase more if needed.
- Google has interests in providing free public Internet access.
- Google is bidding on the 700 MHz range, likely will acquire it (at least partially, if not entirely).
- Google is working on a new open-source cell phone operating system called Android, and has revealed plans to debut their own line of cell phones with this operating system.
- Google knows how to make a lot of money from scratch.
Well, not exactly scratch. Google makes money through advertisements. Starting with their famous search engine, Google presents “sponsored links” and such that people click on, which affords Google with a commission. Google wants to integrate this sly advertising model into their own mobile devices. Imagine having FREE cell phone or Internet access simply because you use Google. You’re viewing of ads alone is enough to pay for what Google has to pay to bring you access, but you’ll likely do more for them by clicking on ads they present to you.
In the mean time, we will see the Google phone likely make a big impact in the market for intelligent phones and the like. And in the background, Google may be prepping their newly purchased radio frequency range and fiber backbone that your Google phone may be able to get access to once their wireless towers are in place. So people using Sprint via contract may be offered a cheap alternative by Google, and not have to purchase any new hardware in order to use it. Perhaps they won’t even need to purchase anything. Imagine seeing an alert pop-up on your phone one day that says, “Hey, guess what? You can get free cell phone service from Google in 30 days, when you’re contract with Sprint (or whoever) is scheduled to expire! Congratulations!”
Well…just a Wild Theory. 
December 23rd, 2007 at 2:23 am
I like your theory, but with the dollars potentially being lost by AT&T, Sprint, et al, I can’t imagine them going quietly into the night with their heads tucked between their tails. Anyone with that kind of impact on the communications market would be dealt with somehow, I would think, and fairly quickly. I would anticipate there would be no shortage of legislation advanced by legislators desirous of keeping the cash flowing, to limit Google’s ability to ‘give away’ revenue traditionally lining the major carriers’ pockets. This could be very interesting.